A probabilistic approach for economic analysis of a shopping center in seismic zone

Abstract

The occurrence of an earthquake causes direct and indirect losses in economy. Performance of the built environment can determine both the magnitude of the losses and the speed of recovery from earthquakes. Earthquake losses can be minimized by the use of planning techniques. This paper presents a probabilistic approach for economic evaluation of a shopping center constructed in a seismic zone. Decision-makers can benefit from this approach, before and after an earthquake occurrence, by considering the probability distribution and variability. Life cycle cost concept is taken into account in the formulation of future worth estimation. Therefore, the approach simulates all the benefits and costs, which are prone to variation within Monte Carlo framework. The probabilistic approach can be used to assess the effects of recovery periods.